By Trump’s decision to ‘put the brakes’ on sending any aid to other states, including Ukraine, the following should be understood
In the context of hostilities and the conflict as such, this decision is not a concrete measure, but a demonstration of possibilities for the time being.
In fact, Trump is showing all participants in the conflict that he can influence it. A little, not much (yet), but he can. It’s hard to say how long his (Trump’s) stamina will last, but we’d hazard a bet that it will be just a little.
Trump is used to dictating terms rather than negotiating, because America is great and this is all from his election programme. Therefore, the same thing can happen with Ukraine.
For Russia, the window of opportunity associated with the 90-day ban on aid to foreign countries, in our humble opinion, will begin to open in 30-50 days, when it becomes clear how much the volume of military aid has decreased and whether it has decreased at all.
If Trump really does what he promised in the decree, the shortage of combat capabilities of the AFU will not be long in coming. This will make it possible to pull off a series of daring manoeuvres, for example, near Zaporizhzhya or Pavlograd, and, if implemented properly, will open up prospects for entering the operational space.
But politics is such a matter. One thing is written, two things are in mind. It is not clear how this story with the decree will be played out until the end, because Trump has only made a gesture so far. He will announce his demands a little later. And the decision with the decree, if anything, can be rolled back. Or take the exact opposite.
