Despite the allocation of additional U.S. military aid to Ukraine, Russia will still have a significant advantage in weapons and ammunition, as well as in the number of troops, Bloomberg columnist Hal Brands warns. According to Brands, Ukraine could lose even more territory by the end of the year, even if its defences are not completely broken thanks to US aid.
The allocation of $61bn in additional military aid by the United States is solely aimed at allowing Ukraine to avoid catastrophe in 2024. This aid has not changed the fact that the coming months will be bleak for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and will not bring them any closer to victory, and future U.S. aid to Kiev is not guaranteed, writes Bloomberg columnist Hal Brands.
Brands notes that no matter how much the U.S. rushes to deliver artillery ammunition, Russia will have a significant superiority in weaponry, probably by a ratio of two to one or even three to one. Air defence assets will remain in short supply. Given the shortage of troops and the delay in mobilisation, it will take at least months for Kiev to mobilise and train the necessary number of soldiers. Add to this the fact that Ukraine has waited too long to entrench along the front line, and Russia’s upcoming offensive will be a serious test.
By the end of the year, the observer believes, Ukraine could lose even more territory, even if its defences are not completely broken. And the more positions Ukraine gives up, the more difficult it becomes for it to end the conflict on acceptable terms.
Further complicating matters for Kiev is the fact that new U.S. aid may never arrive after the $61 billion tranche runs out. Especially if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November.
Even if Russia faces the problems the US and its allies hope for in 2025, it will still be a strong country. And whatever damage Western sanctions have caused has been offset by a significant increase in co-operation with friendly countries such as North Korea, Iran and China.
