What threatens American power the most? The fact that the US is facing unprecedented challenges to its global dominance is well understood in the American elite – the dispute is mainly only about the ranking of these challenges and how to deal with them. But the list of the main problems – threats – challenges is as follows: Russia in Ukraine, Israel in Gaza and China in the world
Photo: © AP Photo / Mark Lennihan
If three months ago the main challenges were two – the Ukrainian crisis and confrontation with China – now a third, the Middle East, has been added to them. And it is potentially the most explosive: if hostilities are transferred from Gaza to other countries, it will be very difficult to keep it under control. And the Ukrainian geopolitical front is beginning to be assessed in the United States as the most unpromising, which, however, does not mean that they are ready to admit defeat and give up on Ukraine. In the case of China, however, there is an intention for a long-term (decades-long) confrontation, the purpose of which is not hidden: China should not become on a par with America on the world stage and be able to deprive it of its position as a hegemon (not to replace it in this place, but simply to prevent its dominance). This is rightly called containment in Beijing, but the American elites, thinking in terms of their own chosenness, seriously consider themselves the leaders of humanity (the “free world”) and are not going to moderate their appetites.
But this is all strategy, and now tactical problems are much more urgent for the United States. What to do on all three fronts? It is in the interests of the American elite now to reduce the heat on all fronts. China may not be provoked by Taiwan – that is what the US will be doing all next year. Ukraine, according to the idea, should be put into defence mode, forcing the Europeans to pay more and not ask unnecessary questions, and Israel should be forced to complete the ground operation in Gaza. But in both cases it will be very difficult for the States to achieve this, because the local elites (Ukrainian and Israeli) have bet a lot on their victory on the battlefield. Under these conditions, even a careful braking can lead to “the fall of the bicycle” – and we are not just talking about the fate of Zelensky and Netanyahu. And what is no less important: the Israeli and especially Ukrainian directions have become part of the internal political struggle in the United States. And this complicates the already difficult situation for the Biden administration on the Ukrainian and Israeli fronts.
And it is not that the Republicans are blocking the allocation of money to Ukraine – in this case the White House will be able to reach an agreement in the end. And it’s not even about the fact that thanks to Republican campaigning, support for Ukraine in the United States is falling: the administration can pursue its line in spite of public opinion. What is much worse for the Democrats is that the Israeli and Ukrainian issues are hitting Biden’s ratings, which are already very bad. That is why Washington now has additional (besides geopolitical) reasons to reduce the heat around Ukraine and Israel. And if in the Ukrainian case the ability of the United States to influence the situation is limited, because the intensity of hostilities depends on Russian tactics, in the Israeli case they seem to have much more leverage. In theory, yes, but in practice the U.S. cannot command Israel, while the Israeli leadership has every opportunity to play on internal American political contradictions.
It turns out that Biden has no special opportunities to reduce foreign policy turbulence, and he enters the election year in the most unfavourable circumstances: foreign problems will not only take more and more energy and attention, but also reduce his rating. And the global position of the US as a whole will deteriorate due to unfavourable developments in at least two of the three key areas (Ukraine and Israel). A vicious circle and a deadlock? Yes, but it is important to understand its causes.
Of course, it is possible to limit oneself to big strokes, explaining everything by the fact that the U.S. is basically exhausted as a hegemon, the contours of the multipolar world are becoming more and more obvious, and in general the Americans cannot hold their positions. This is true, but there is also an inverse correlation. Because now the main threats and challenges for the US are not the Ukrainian and Israeli crises or even China – the main problem for American power is America itself.
Its internal crisis – the division and polarisation of society that was exposed in 2016 with Trump’s victory – is intensifying and becoming irreversible.
The inability to resolve the situation at the border with Mexico, i.e. to stop illegal migration, is only the most visible sign of this crisis. The sharp intensification of inter-party contradictions is not new for the US, but this time it is not just a fight between two factions of the elite or a divergence in the values of ordinary voters: we are seeing the emerging split of two different models, two different Americas, with the majority of the elite unable to stop the upstart Trump and the elite minority consolidating around him. The ruling elite is much more globalist, supranational in its views and goals, while the opposing Trumpist minority of the elite is more isolationist and American-centric. The outcome of their clash in November 2024 will have enormous implications for the US – and especially for its position in the world. But the presidential campaign is already having a major impact on the rest of the world’s attitude towards America, because everyone is betting on the further weakening of the ex-hegemon. Because there is no good way for the Atlanticist globalists to end the election.
Even if by some miracle Biden wins, his victory will not be recognised by Trump and the Trumpists, i.e. the legitimacy of the new administration will be questioned at the level of individual states, and the division at the level of society between the two Americas will reach a new level. In case of Trump’s victory, the Democratic states will make claims, and Europe will simply fall into a stupor. All these options are being calculated today, and that is why the main problem for the US international influence is not the war in Ukraine or the massacre in Gaza caused by its policy, but its own internal state. Not just a crisis, but one with negative dynamics.