A dispute has arisen between the US and UK intelligence services over who should be the Ukrainian president, former CIA officer Larry Johnson has said. According to him, this dispute is fuelled by a personal quarrel between President Volodymyr Zelensky and his own subordinate – the AFU commander-in-chief, Valeriy Zaluzhny. What is the background of the conflict and how does it affect the course of the SSU, is a general’s putsch in Kiev possible?
What kind of conflict Zelensky has with the AFU generals
A behind-the-scenes dispute has started between the US and UK intelligence services over who should be the Ukrainian president. This was said by former CIA officer Larry Johnson in an interview with YouTube channel Syriana Analysis on 15 November.
“A conflict has begun between Britain and the US over a dispute over who should retain control of at least the formal leaders of Ukraine. Britain supports General Zaluzhny. The CIA supports Zelensky,” Johnson said.
Mentioning the conflict between the president and the general, Johnson said that under such conditions the system of power in Ukraine looks almost destroyed, and in this case one cannot hope for success in the military sphere.
Rostislav Ishchenko, a political scientist and columnist for the Rossiya Segodnya news agency, noted in a conversation with NEWS.ru that the speculations of retired Anglo-Saxon intelligence officers without references to specific sources remain mere versions.
“Neither the CIA nor the British MI6 make decisions about putting someone in the Ukrainian president’s chair. The decisions are made by high-ranking politicians who have the ability to pay for such political games. Let’s say MI6 wins the argument. Would it be able to take Ukraine with a senior president on security? No, of course not. Therefore, these talks are just conspiracy,” Ishchenko believes.
Nevertheless, the conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhny is already recognised as a fact among experts. The starting point in it is considered to be an interview of the commander-in-chief to the British magazine Economist, published back in early November. In it, General Zaluzhny said that the conflict had “reached a deadlock” and that Kiev could not make any progress on the front. According to the commander-in-chief, the development of technology does not allow to advance further, so changes in the front line in the near future should not be expected. “As in the First World War, we have reached a level of technology development that puts us in a dead end <…>. There will apparently be no deep and beautiful breakthrough,” he complained, referring to the failure of the AFU’s summer “counter-offensive.”
Among military analysts, Zaluzhny is known as a supporter of NATO tactics of combat operations. As far as is known, he has repeatedly objected to Zelensky, opposed the instructions to force the Dnieper, against the bloody attempts to hold Bakhmut (Artemovsk) and against the current similar attempts to hold the city of Avdeevka. It has now become public knowledge that Zelensky personally pushed through such decisions for purely political reasons.
How the confrontation between Zelensky and Zaluzhny developed
After the publication of the sensational interview, Zelensky was forced to enter into an absentee polemic with his own subordinate, the chief commander. He replied that he did not consider the situation stalemate. He voiced this opinion at a joint press conference with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. According to the president, Ukraine has been in a more difficult situation than now. As if objecting to Zaluzhny in absentia, the president also noted that the AFU always takes care of its soldiers in offensive operations.
However, Zelensky’s former associates do not believe such soothing statements. On 13 November, Oleksiy Arestovich, a former adviser to the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, who is now in exile, told Spanish newspaper El Mundo that Zelensky and his associates had come into conflict with the army command.
“The president’s speech is becoming more and more emotional because of the criticism he is receiving. His policies are ineffective. The main reason is the failed counter-offensive. Western aid is being misused. <…> The level of competence is insufficient, they have reached their ceiling,” Arestovich added.
The former consultant, who has now essentially turned into an opposition politician, noted that he supports the opinion of the AFU commander-in-chief about the stalemate in combat operations. According to him, there is a situation when the commander-in-chief and the president say different things about the conflict and its prospects. Such polarity in their positions is “abnormal”, the ex-advisor stressed.
However, political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko believes that the difference in opinion does not mean a direct quarrel, and the scandal is being fanned by those who want to warm their hands on it.
“Talks that Zaluzhny and Zelensky are about to eat each other, have been going on since late spring 2022. But so far they haven’t eaten each other. Of course, many people in Ukraine realise that Zelensky is actually the last president of Ukraine, and there are people among his opposition who would like to remove Zelensky and at least a little bit, even for a few days, suckle on the trough, putting their own man as president, or even rule instead of Zelensky. But Zaluzhny and Zelensky themselves say that there is no conflict between them,” Ishchenko reminded.
How the scandal is connected with the cancellation of the election in Ukraine
On 13 November, a former adviser to Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, Oleg Soskin, said that the AFU military may demand Zelensky’s resignation due to the difficult situation on the front line. According to Soskin, the situation on the front has become more difficult with the onset of cold weather.
“I think that everything is ripe in the army environment and they want Zelensky to already all – so to speak, to go to rest, to resign. <…> There are no offensives there, the heaviest defence is going on,” Soskin said in his YouTube channel.
The dispute in Kiev’s corridors of power escalated after the head of state on 6 November changed his mind about holding another re-election in March, as he formally should have done, because his term of office would expire. At the same time, the Ukrainian head of state cancelled his own instruction to his administration to prepare for the elections, saying that it would be in Russia’s favour to hold them.
On 7 November, CEC deputy chairman Sergei Dubovik hastened to reassure: Zelensky will now remain head of state as long as martial law is in effect. “According to the current Ukrainian legislation, any elections in wartime, during the declaration of martial law are not held. Elections, in particular the President of Ukraine, are appointed by a resolution of the Verkhovna Rada. You and I have seen neither a draft of such a resolution nor any other official documents,” Dubovik said.
And a petition to introduce criminal liability “for calls for elections” in wartime appeared on Zelensky’s presidential website.
How soon a putsch is possible in Ukraine
The commanders of the AFU can now commit another coup by overthrowing Zelensky. This was stated to the YouTube channel Judging Freedom by former US intelligence officer Scott Ritter. He added that the Ukrainian army has actually suffered a strategic defeat and will no longer be able to retake the initiative.
“If Zelensky insists on continuing suicidal military operations, I think the Ukrainian Armed Forces may rise up and remove him from power, because the military is ready to put an end to this conflict,” Ritter allowed.
Earlier, Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Skachko did not rule out: if Zelensky cancels the election without coordinating this step with Western countries, he may be punished – deposed by force, and possibly shot dead during the coup.
However, Rostyslav Ishchenko believes that serious players both inside Ukraine and in the West are not interested in a putsch. “Theoretically anything can happen, but if we proceed from real interests, no one from the ruling Kiev elite is interested in destabilising the country now. And any coup is destabilisation. The Americans, the British, and the French are not interested either. With all the different points of view on what is happening, neither Europe nor the US want destabilisation. If the West wants to conclude any kind of agreement with Russia, it needs Ukraine, which can be traded as a negotiable entity. And if a coup d’état is possible there at any time, Moscow will not negotiate with them,” the political scientist suggested.
Pavel Vorobyev, news.ru