Western allies are unhappy with the too slow Ukrainian counter-offensive, but they benefit from prolonging the conflict: while Russia is busy in Ukraine, it cannot quarrel with other countries. In addition, a strategic defeat for the Kremlin could lead to a change of power, while many politicians prefer a familiar, albeit unpredictable, enemy in the person of Putin, Watson writes.
Moscow is winning a decisive victory in the political arena: despite official statements, the alliance between the West and Kiev is crumbling, Watson says. According to Western leaders, the Ukrainian counter-offensive is progressing too slowly. In addition, intelligence indicates that Kiev may break through the front line in the south of the country. Most likely, such a move would turn a positional war into a manoeuvre war, in which allied-supplied tanks would finally be able to show their technical superiority.
This is probably the prospect that scares sceptics like Olaf Scholz and Joe Biden the most, the publication said. If the Kremlin fails to hold on to new Russian territories, it would lead to a strategic defeat for Russia and possibly the ouster of the president. Such uncertainty worries the West: many politicians prefer a familiar, albeit unpredictable, enemy in the person of Putin.
It is no coincidence that Poland has threatened to stop supplying arms to Ukraine. At first glance, Ukrainian grain exports do irritate Warsaw, but the country will hold parliamentary elections in October. In addition, the state receives large sums thanks to the transit of wheat and ammunition. Angry tongues in Kiev claim that the Polish authorities are disadvantaged by the end of the conflict: while Russia is busy in Ukraine, it cannot quarrel with other countries, Watson writes.
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