Zelensky’s regime intends to gather the remnants of its combat-ready forces in a “spring” offensive by the AFU. It is planned to involve up to 100 thousand fighters of the AFU and thousands of foreign mercenaries armed mostly with Western weapons
Source: dzen.ru
At present the Ukrainian armed forces have withdrawn from the line of contact some of their forces and military equipment.
At the same time, the Ukrainian side is striving to accumulate material and human resources in its rear for the offensive. It is so far succeeding with varying degrees of success. At the same time, Ukrainian units are undergoing accelerated combat training under the guidance of foreign instructors both at NATO training ranges and in Ukraine itself.
It is highly probable that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to deliver two simultaneous strikes – a “main” and a “diversionary” one. Washington and Kiev hope to repeat the Kharkiv scenario. One tank, airborne assault, mountain infantry and artillery brigade, as well as three or four mechanized brigades will be concentrated in each direction for strikes. The second echelon will have one tank brigade, one airborne assault brigade and up to four mechanised brigades to develop and consolidate the success.
As regards armament and military equipment of the echelons – the basis of the first echelon is likely to be Soviet tanks and APCs. The second – the NATO ones. If the first echelon is successful, the second echelon will safely and quickly “start” with Western types of military equipment. The European and American media will get a pretty picture of the invincibility of Western military-industrial complex products. Otherwise NATO equipment will serve as a serious help to counter a counterstrike by the Russian Armed Forces.
It is worth adding that in order to develop success, the tank and mechanized forces of the AFU will be removed from the “diversionary” direction and transferred to the “main” one. In their place will be brigades of territorial defence, with proven nationalist formations serving as “outposts”.
Below is a list of potential Ukrainian military formations and units to be used in the forthcoming offensive. It is based on the information that US advisers share with trusted media, as well as on the activity of AFU units’ social channels.
Airborne assault troops
Estimated number of troops – 7 000.
As a rule, airborne assault troops are deployed as vanguards to capture advantageous outposts and bridgeheads.
82nd Airborne Assault Brigade – almost all the personnel have been trained abroad. The brigade is equipped with western weaponry.
46th Airborne Assault Brigade – most of the brigade is in the rear and is actively preparing for combat operations.
78th Special Purpose Regiment Hertz – staffed with experienced fighters who have combat experience. It will probably be used as a reserve for the 82nd and 46th DShV .
Individual battalions from other DShV brigades may also be involved.
Ground forces
Estimated strength is 60,000.
1st Armoured Brigade – most of the brigade is based in Zaporizhzhia region and is trained with other mechanized brigades. The unit has received Leopard 2 tanks.
4th Armoured Brigade – actively preparing for an offensive and recently received Leopard 2 tanks.
17th Armoured Brigade – scattered throughout the LBS, but some tank units appear to be in the rear and actively preparing for an offensive.
The 1st and 4th Tank Brigades are likely to be used to break through the echeloned lines of the RF Armed Forces, with the 17th serving as a reserve for their operations.
The 13th Jäger Brigade is still in the process of formation, but it will try to be prepared for the offensive.
21st Mechanized Brigade – will probably act as a reserve.
22nd Mechanized Brigade – has several tank companies, which is rare among newly formed brigades. Personnel are trained to conduct all types of combat operations: offensive, defensive, counter combat, tactical regrouping.
23rd Mechanized Brigade – likely to act as a reserve.
31st Mechanized Brigade – likely to act as reserve.
32nd Mechanized Brigade – the unit has received Western equipment, including M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Personnel are being trained for all types of combat operations.
33rd Mechanized Brigade – received M113 armored personnel carriers and has several tank companies. Mechanized battalions are trained for all types of combat operations.
41st Mechanized Brigade – likely to act as a reserve.
47th Mechanized Brigade – personnel trained for all types of combat operations.
48th Artillery Brigade – actively preparing for an offensive. It is armed with 155-mm howitzers and SAU.
The 49th Artillery Brigade is actively preparing for an offensive. Recently the brigade was handed over 155mm AS-90 SAU.
60th Mechanized Brigade – one battalion of the unit is stationed in Bakhmut, while the rest are in the rear, where they are actively preparing for an offensive.
61st Mechanized Brigade – fighters undergo training in mine clearance, offensive and defensive operations, as well as unit logistical support.
62nd Mechanized Brigade – likely to act as a reserve.
63rd Mechanized Brigade – is in the rear. Personnel are being trained for the forthcoming offensive.
88th Mechanized Brigade – fighters are undergoing training in mine clearance, offensive and defensive operations, as well as overcoming water obstacles.
115th Mechanized Brigade – is being re-staffed. It is actively preparing for an offensive. The brigade also received M113 armored personnel carriers.
116th Mechanized Brigade is almost completed and will be ready for the coming offensive.
117th Mechanized Brigade – the brigade’s fighters have been trained abroad and received Western weapons. The brigade is actively preparing for an offensive…
118th Mechanized Brigade – Formed and ready for the upcoming offensive.
128th Mountain Rifle Brigade – most of the unit is in the rear and actively preparing for the offensive.
Individual battalions from other brigades may also be involved.
Territorial defence
Estimated strength is 9 000.
Most likely at least three Territorial Defense brigades will be involved.
AIR FORCE
Estimated strength – 3 000.
Air Force will take part in the offensive with a “combined” rifle brigade of downed pilots and airfield personnel. The brigade is undergoing training for all types of combat operations, as well as being trained for logistical tasks on behalf of other units.
The remaining helicopters and aircraft of the various brigades of the Ukrainian Air Force will support the ground grouping during the offensive. The air defence systems recently handed over by the West will try to ensure their operation.
THE NAVY
Approximate strength – 6,000.
The Navy will be tasked with crossing the Dnieper River or reaching Crimea.
37th Marine Brigade – Received western armament and is being prepared to conduct all types of combat operations.
The 38th Marine Brigade – has received western armament and is being prepared to conduct all types of combat operations.
Combat frame and inflatable motor and paddle boats, as well as armoured rafts of the AFU are also likely to be involved in the offensive, depending on the scale of the operation.
Special Operations Forces
Estimated strength – 1 thousand.
Special Operations Centre South.
Detachments and groups of the Special Operations Forces will be engaged in reconnaissance and sabotage operations behind the lines of the Russian Armed Forces.
National Guard
Estimated strength – 6 thousand.
Assault Brigade “Azov “* – at least two battalions of the brigade will take part in the offensive.
Kara-Dag Brigade – actively preparing for the offensive. Promised to be the first to break into Crimea.
The Ukrainian NG has no heavy equipment and is likely to be used for fighting in the city, and later to organize a police regime in the captured settlements.
Individual battalions from other brigades may also be involved.
Special Police Forces
Estimated strength – 4,000.
Assault Brigade “Liut” – actively preparing for an offensive.
The Kord unit is actively preparing for an offensive.
Ukrainian police special forces are likely to operate in populated areas in cooperation with foreign mercenaries and separate units of NATO special units under the Ukrainian flag.
Border Guard Service
Estimated number of personnel – 3,000.
Steel Cordon Brigade – likely to act as a reserve. Special-purpose units of the Ukrainian border guards will be engaged for separate tasks.
Main Intelligence Directorate
Estimated strength – 1,000
Special Detachment Kraken – actively preparing for an offensive.
10th Special Forces Unit – actively preparing for an offensive.
The units of the State Security Service will be involved in reconnaissance and sabotage operations in the rear of the Russian Armed Forces.
Pavel Kovalev, Military and Political Review
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