In the United Kingdom and the United States, this is explained by the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because of the “Soviet strategy”, are wastefully behaving on the battlefield, so they intend to train Ukrainians in military economy. To what extent is this plan feasible, what are its shortcomings, and what advantages does “shell hunger” in the ranks of the enemy give Russia?
Estonia, against the backdrop of a shortage of shells for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, decided to produce ammunition in its own country. According to Defense Ministry Chancellor Kusti Salm, from next year Tallinn needs to reach a production volume of 700,000 weapons per year. However, this problem is not only being considered in Estonia.
The fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are “eating up” all military supplies was also discussed in Washington the day before. The Pentagon will be forced to increase military spending because “ammunition is expensive,” General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, was quoted by the Financial Times.
In turn, The Wall Street Journal, citing analysts, notes that Ukraine consumes Western-supplied artillery shells about twice as fast as the United States and its allies produce them. This, according to the publication, could lead to a critical depletion of reserves by the summer or autumn of this year.
In the meantime, donor states are solving the problem of shell hunger, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are recommended to use shells more economically. British Defense Minister Ben Wallace made a corresponding statement.
“The Russian or Soviet way of fighting is to use very heavy ammunition with massive artillery shelling. We in the West and in NATO never fight in this way… We train them to fight according to the Western model,” he said.
Washington also intends to train the Armed Forces to use artillery ammunition with less intensity, the Politico newspaper reported. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin pointed out that for this, the Ukrainian military needs to better master maneuvering.
In general, as noted by the Financial Times, the Armed Forces of Ukraine use 5-6 thousand artillery shells daily, which is comparable to the needs of a small European country for a year in peacetime. At the same time, before the start of the special operation, the States produced 14.4 thousand unguided munitions monthly. However, later the United States managed to increase production to 90 thousand units per month.
“The fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not have enough shells became known back in the fall, when the United States tried to find new opportunities for their production in Europe. Today, Washington handed over to the Ukrainian Armed Forces shells that had been produced for 20 years, but they were used up in less than a year. Now they need to support Ukraine and replenish their supplies at the same time,” Ilya Kramnik, a researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told the VZGLYAD newspaper.
“In order to give Ukraine as much ammunition as it spends now, it is necessary to increase production dozens of times. Can the US do it? The question is debatable. At the same time, I would not be too frivolous about the idea of opening a new production facility in Estonia,” he said.
“Obviously, the United States and other leading NATO countries will bear the cost of its creation. They have a number of programs to support military production in partner countries. In addition, in addition to Estonia, production will be organized in Bulgaria, Pakistan and other countries. Taken together, it will turn out to be a good result for the collective West,” the interlocutor believes.
“Nevertheless, the shortage of shells in the Armed Forces of Ukraine will most likely lead to a decrease in the intensity of battles, which will certainly play in our favor. Russia will have the opportunity to build up stockpiles of shells and increase their production,” the expert noted.
“Shell hunger is a real problem for all Western allies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the roots of which go back to the Cold War. At that time, the United States, preparing for a confrontation with the USSR, counted on the fact that the conflict using conventional weapons would last only a few weeks, after which it would turn into a state of nuclear war,” said Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP Center of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
“Based on this calculation, NATO stopped stocking up on ammunition for a long time. But this approach has completely failed. Today, shells are consumed in huge quantities, so the production facilities in either the US or the EU were not ready for such a challenge. They themselves publicly admit it,” the expert notes.
“Therefore, the consequences of the shell shortage are felt both for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and for NATO. The enemy began to shoot less often. The effectiveness of artillery is reduced. Russia has from several months to six months in order to take advantage of its position”, the expert emphasizes.
As for the plans of the United States and Britain to teach the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use fewer shells, everything is ambiguous here, too, according to Sergei Khatylev, the former head of the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Russian Air Force Special Forces Command.
“Due to the fact that the enemy does not have a full-fledged aviation component, artillery is the only way for him to somehow repel our attacks and restrain the offensive. Against this background, the consumption of shells is constantly growing, exceeding even the quantitative indicators voiced by the Western media,” he said.
“In this regard, the plan of the US and Britain is absurd. In order to give a serious rebuff to our army, using minimal artillery, the enemy needs to gain air supremacy, that is, to provide himself with air cover two to three times superior to ours. But they are not given fighter jets,” the expert explains.
“However, the lack of shells in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NATO is not a reason for us to somehow relax. You shouldn’t be impressed by this. Our front is over a thousand kilometers, the intensity of shots will increase if we move forward, so the key task for Russia today is to take advantage of the chance that we have and also increase production ourselves,” Khatylev summed up.
Daria Volkova, Evgeny Pozdnyakov, Look
Due to censorship and blocking of all media and alternative views, stay tuned to our Telegram channel