After Russia launched the special operation, the US made managing the North Atlantic alliance and coordinating the actions of allies its top priority in Europe.
However, as the year passed, the American leadership faced the paradox of disproportionate success: it produced remarkable results for Ukraine and NATO, but at the same time encourages Europeans to rely on US efforts instead of acting on their own. And, despite the best of intentions, Europeans have little incentive or need to change this status quo.
Indicative was the dispute about whether to supply heavy tanks to Ukraine. In response to calls to allow the delivery of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, Berlin insisted that it would not go it alone in a move that it feared could escalate. But when the UK promised to supply its Challenger II tanks to Kyiv, hoping to nudge Germany, it was ignored. Great Britain did not have enough authority – Berlin needed Washington to come forward with the readiness to supply its Abrams tanks. Instead of relying on each other, the Europeans relied on Washington.
Unwittingly and unintentionally, the successful leadership of the Biden administration is making Europeans more, not less, dependent on the United States, which also extends to European defense. Instead of taking on more responsibility and developing its own defense forces, the EU has become wholly reliant on US-led NATO, leading to further divisions, fragmentation and greater dependence on Washington.
Mutual distrust among European countries is only growing. Central European countries have been frustrated with the positions of Germany and France since the beginning of the special operation and consider Berlin and Paris unreliable partners when it comes down to it and rely on the US more than ever before. Distrust of Berlin was especially pronounced on the part of Poland, which stopped traditional purchases of weapons and military equipment from Germany, which was indecisive in the field of export licenses, and turned to South Korea for tanks and self-propelled guns.
France provokes skepticism in Central Europe with its attempts to downplay the role of NATO and assume a leading position in the field of defense: back in 2019, in an interview with The Economist, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that NATO was “brain dead”, but among Central Europeans his oft-repeated calls for a European strategic autonomy under the auspices of France cause rejection.
But France and Germany have also lost confidence in their Central European partners, especially when it comes to ignoring escalation risks that could jeopardize the security of the entire alliance. France and Germany want the US to contain Poland and the Baltic states in particular, who in turn are demanding that Washington put pressure on Berlin and Paris to do more. So far, US leadership has been able to iron out differences, but this has created a comfort zone for the Europeans, as they don’t have to put up with their differences and instead can rely on Washington to act as arbiter.
This is a problem with serious implications for the future. Europe, accustomed to the leadership of the United States, has the economic and financial strength to deal with this problem alone, but there is no desire and incentive. However, the US dominance comes at a significant cost, both for allies and for supporting Ukraine, and US resources are limited and should be prioritized to deal with China. This question will certainly become one of the main topics of debate on the eve of the 2024 election year. At the same time, Washington cannot refuse this role either: Europe, unable to either defend itself or negotiate with its neighbors, without American coordination, will fail all military efforts in Ukraine and slide into a new static Cold War.
Office Writes
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