Former Polish Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorski said that Warsaw was considering the option of annexing the western part of Ukraine. And while official Polish authorities are now demanding denials, there are signs that Sikorski has voiced Warsaw’s wishes. How and under what circumstances can these dreams of Poland come true?
It is becoming more and more obvious that Ukraine as an integral state has no future. Even if, by some chance, the Kyiv regime manages to keep a significant part of the territory under its control, then what will it do with its own economy?
The country’s GDP in 2022 decreased by 31%. This figure is likely to grow. Partly due to the ongoing hostilities, and partly due to the fact that Kyiv has lost a number of regions forever. Some will probably lose more in the future.
The cost of damaged infrastructure was 85% of GDP. The state budget deficit in 2022 amounted to an astronomical 20% of GDP – that is, in other words, the country lived entirely on external funds. And it will live on – economists predict a deficit in 2023 in the amount of 15% of GDP, and this is still a very optimistic forecast.
Meanwhile, far from all external funds were voluntary donations from the collective West to save the Kyiv regime. A significant part went as loans that need to be repaid. Nominally, of course, now the volume of debt is not critical – yes, it grew by almost 37 percentage points in 2022 and amounted to 80% of GDP. But this is nominal GDP, which, in fact, does not exist.
And, in fact, there is nothing to repay this debt with – neither now, nor in the foreseeable future. Even now, with the current debt burden, Kyiv will have to pay only $5.4 billion in 2024 and $7 billion in 2025 to service its sovereign external debt. Not surprisingly, Fitch assigned Ukraine a pre-default rating.
At the same time, international lenders operate on the principle of “Iron Bank always gets its way.” Nobody is going to forgive the debts of Ukraine (or what will be left of it) – especially after the end of the Russian NVO, when assistance to the Kyiv regime will go out of fashion. And the question arises – how will Kyiv pay for the debts that it has now accumulated?
The answer, in fact, is one – in kind. For example, enterprises that will still work at the time of the end of the SVO. infrastructure facilities. Earth.
Fortunately, examples of such payments already exist. In kind, in particular, sometimes China is paid by those countries that, for various reasons, are not able to serve or repay the funds borrowed from the PRC. As a result, Tajikistan pays with gold mines, Sri Lanka with a naval base, and Montenegro with a port.
This practice has always been severely criticized by the West, which assured that Beijing is twisting the arms of its debtors – but it is unlikely that anyone will criticize Western countries if they follow the Chinese path. Jupiter is allowed.
However, it is possible that payment in kind by Ukraine will reach a new level. She can pay off her debts not by renting out the land and its subsoil, but by directly transferring her territory to her neighbor for good. And the first candidate for this kind of annexation is Poland.
It would seem, why? Warsaw is by no means the main creditor of Ukraine – it does not officially give as much money as Lviv or Ivano-Frankivsk costs. However, there are several arguments in favor of this version.
First of all, a great Polish desire. Warsaw considers the Western Ukrainian lands to be primordially Polish territories and is ready to return them at the first opportunity. The most recent sign of this was a statement by the former Polish foreign minister. Radoslav Sikorski assures that the Polish authorities wanted to annex them immediately after the start of the NWO. “There was a moment of hesitation in the first ten days of the war, when we all didn’t know how it would go, and perhaps Ukraine would collapse,” he explains. With these words, he answered the question of whether Warsaw considered the option of annexing Western Ukraine.
The current Polish authorities, of course, reacted to Sikorsky’s words with anger and accusations of betrayal. “The statements of Radoslav Sikorsky are no different from Russian propaganda. The former foreign minister must weigh words. I expect him to retract these shameful statements,” says Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
But there is no doubt that if the Kyiv regime still collapses during the special operation, Poland will make a second approach to the projectile. Will introduce troops to allegedly protect the inhabitants of these lands from Russians, local nationalists or reptilians – it does not matter. The main thing is that the lands will return under Polish sovereignty.
But if it doesn’t collapse, if the special operation ends with an agreement under which part of the former Ukraine will remain under the sovereignty of Kyiv (for example, a piece of the right bank of the Dnieper), then Poland will have to find other options for legitimization of annexation. And just then the topic of debts is raised, where Poland can, in exchange for territories, take over the payment of Ukrainian loan obligations to the United States.
There is no doubt that the Americans will take part in such a scheme – it is no secret to anyone that Washington views Warsaw as its main ally and like-minded person in Europe. This means that it is by no means against strengthening the political and economic weight of Poland at the expense of part of the Ukrainian territories. So, in addition to the great Polish desire to annex territories, the US is also willing to help Warsaw in this matter. And, of course, the specifics of the Kyiv regime are added – the one that has already granted the Poles special powers on Ukrainian territory (including the right to exercise police functions).
“On the one hand, the very discourse that “the United States can transfer part of Ukraine to Poland” is unusual, given that nominally we are talking about sovereign states that usually do not trade their sovereignty. On the other hand, in the light of the gradual desovereignization of Ukraine, it is quite possible to imagine a situation in which it supposedly “voluntarily” (but in fact under severe external pressure) parted with part of the western lands,” Kira, an international lawyer, associate professor, explains to the VZGLYAD newspaper Sazonova.
According to Sazonova, from the standpoint of international law, questions arise only about the form in which such a transfer will be formalized.
“There are a lot of options, and each will differ in its international legal specifics: exchange / lease / sale of territory,” the expert explains. In any case, they’ll come up with something. After all, the Iron Bank always gets its way.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor, Financial University, VIEW
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