On the anniversary of the start of the special operation, Brussels intends to give Russia a kind of “gift” – the tenth package of sanctions, which is now being negotiated by the EU countries. What can be included in this package? What measures are proposed by the main “hawks” – Poland and the Baltic states? And why do Europeans need it at all, if none of the previous ones achieved the stated goal?
Judging by the statement of the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, so far the “anniversary” package of anti-Russian sanctions is only at the initial stage of coordination and there is no data on its content. The replenishment of the black list of individuals and legal entities seems to be something inevitable, but otherwise, experts can only assume the nature of the upcoming restrictions.
“The package may include an expansion of blocking sanctions and a list of goods for export control. Yes, key positions (such as electronics, navigation aids, machine tools) are already banned, but some new names may be found,” Ivan Timofeev, RIAC program director, told the VZGLYAD newspaper.
Also, according to him, the emergence of a “ceiling for oil products” is likely. “From February 5, an embargo on the purchase of Russian oil products begins to operate in the EU, but there is still no price ceiling for the sale of these oil products to third countries. And if he appears, Russia may have problems. Of course, this ceiling will not come as a shock to the market, but it will be more difficult to transfer Russian oil products to the markets of third countries, as we did with oil. After all, Asia has its own oil refining,” says the expert.
Earlier, some official proposals coming from Poland and the Baltic states leaked to the press. In the list of their initiatives, one can see bans against Russian media, cutting off new Russian banks from the SWIFT system, replenishment of the list of dual-use goods prohibited from supplying to Russia. But there are also interesting innovations.
For example, a ban on trade in Russian diamonds in the EU and sanctions against Rosatom.
However, these proposals are not only curious, but also doubtful. “The ban on the purchase of Russian diamonds will not create a new reality. ALROSA is already under US sanctions. Many EU companies comply with US sanctions,” says Ivan Timofeev.
As for Rosatom, the company is involved in a large project on the territory of Hungary, and Budapest is not ready to refuse this cooperation for reasons, both economic and political.
Recently, a survey was conducted in the country, and it turned out that for the most part, the Hungarians are against the continuation of the sanctions war. At least due to the fact that it cannot achieve its goals and looks like a waste of money.
“If we analyze the impact of the sanctions, we will understand that they did not live up to our expectations,” explains Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó. – What were your expectations at the beginning of March, at the end of February, when we discussed the first package of sanctions? That they will bring the Russian economy to its knees, and as a result, the war will soon be stopped. However, the Russian economy is definitely not on its knees. We may have different assessments of how bad the situation is in Russia, but it is not on its knees and the war is not coming to an end. And the European economy suffers from the sanctions more than the Russian economy.”
Therefore, Szijjarto concludes, it is time to end the sanctions war. Or, at least, not to introduce new sanctions against Russia.
It would seem that his logic is undeniable. Although sanctions, of course, harm Russia too – and over time, this harm may increase.
“The impact of sanctions on the Russian economy will accumulate. On the one hand, the economy is adapting to them. On the other hand, the effect of some sanctions will not appear now, but, conditionally, in a year. For example, when Europe refuses to supply components for any equipment, says Ivan Timofeev. – However, all key sanctions were introduced last year and new weather will not change.
It is possible, relatively speaking, to ban the supply of soda and chocolate to Russia, but we ourselves are able to produce such goods.”
Then what’s the point of the new packages? He is in geopolitics, in reporting and in preparation for future negotiations. From a geopolitical point of view, everything is very simple – Europe implements the interests of the United States.
“The Americans are demanding new sanctions from the Europeans, but they themselves introduce new measures quite carefully. The task is to permanently and reliably disrupt Russia’s ties with European countries. And this is even more important than just causing damage to Russia, – Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, explains to the VZGLYAD newspaper. – The Americans are trying to push Europe against Russia and make the most of it. Approximately in the same way as they did it during the Second World War, but at the same time retaining the role of an arbiter and the ability to slow down escalate the conflict if necessary.”
In fact, Europe is being “degreased” with the full connivance of the European leadership, which is dependent on the United States. The VZGLYAD newspaper analyzed this issue in detail using the example of Germany.
“In Europe, of course, there are elites. But I think that they no longer play a big role in making fundamental decisions, although they can solve minor issues related to their own finances on a communicative basis,” Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky believes.
If the European elites cannot stop the sanctions war, they are left with two options: either admit their own impotence and resign, or continue to exude confidence that they have chosen the right path, and thus introduce new packages, regardless of their effectiveness. .
“We must understand that the continuation of the sanctions war has not only an essential, but also a symbolic meaning. The new packages are a kind of reporting to voters, European politicians show that they are doing something. Therefore, the sanctions machine cannot just pick up and stop. At least until the conflict between Russia and the West continues,” says Ivan Timofeev.
In addition, the sanctions packages can be seen as a kind of bargaining chip in the inevitable future negotiations on the normalization of Russian-Western relations.
“Packages of sanctions are needed not so much in order to introduce new sanctions, but in order not to introduce them all at once,” says Ofitserov-Belsky. “Step-by-step introduction is convenient in that it will be possible to rewind back in the same way.”
And rewind in the reverse order: first cancel the less significant, and then the more significant.
So-so, of course, a subject for bargaining. Russia does not trust Brussels and is convinced that today Europe will lift the sanctions, and tomorrow they will easily be introduced again. However, the EU currently has no other items.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor, Financial University, VIEW
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