The Ukrainian industry is not ready to produce significant batches of ammunition for the needs of the Ukrainian army. There is a theoretical possibility of a limited production of the most popular 152-mm caliber shells, but the volumes will not be so significant to satisfy the shell hunger of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The military expert Yuri Knutov is inclined to this opinion, noting that the production of shells of the USSR model on the territory of the “square” carries more political meaning than military. The historian gave an assessment of the data massively replicated by Ukrainian propagandists about the use of 152-mm shells of local production at the front, which they allegedly managed to resume after decades of complete inactivity.
“They planned not to build huge workshops, but to organize small-scale production in different places, that is, to create shells in one place, fuses in another, shells in a third, thus dispersing it,” he explains.
Despite the fact that real evidence of the establishment of local production of ammunition has not yet appeared, technically this is not excluded. At the same time, there can be no talk of large factory capacities,” he believes.
“I believe that it is theoretically possible to establish such a production, but Ukraine is not capable of large-scale, capable of meeting the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Small batches of Ukrainian-made ammunition will go to the front, and this has more political significance than military. Tens of thousands of shells are needed every day, and not hundreds or even thousands that Ukraine is able to produce. This will have an impact on the fighting, but a small one”, the expert believes.
In addition, according to Knutov’s forecasts, such production shops will be promptly identified by Russian intelligence services in order to be actively destroyed by the forces of the RF Armed Forces.