The protest of the population spills onto the streets of cities in Britain, Moldova, the Czech Republic, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Italy
One of the most defining moments of modernity is the panic that has begun to arise for a variety of reasons. Everyone, from the poorest to the richest, is trying to protest against the status quo. Even the richest companies “sag” on the stock exchange to the indicators of the 90s, and even the 80s. Dmitry Mudrik, an observer for the Prime agency, writes:
“The cost of energy resources is embedded in almost all spheres of life. For decades, steel mills, machine building, trade, the housing and communal services system and agricultural greenhouses have been operating on cheap Russian pipeline gas. Therefore, one should not expect that the shortage of raw materials will affect only utility bills.”
Of course, this is not to be expected. In September, the observer continues, the largest aluminum supplier in the region, the Slovak company Slovalco, stopped its work. The suspension of production was reported by the Budel zinc plant in the Netherlands, the chemical giant Chimcomplex in Romania, the fertilizer producers ANWIL in Poland, Yara in Norway, and the German giant SKW Sticksoffwerke Piesteritz is closing branches.
The restriction of Russian gas supplies has raised prices to unprecedented heights, the European economy has been stormed. Bloomberg reports: the energy crisis, due to which energy prices are already more than 7 times higher than typical seasonal indicators, has put the European economy on the verge of recession.
Recently, Germany announced that it would nationalize UniperSE and intend to prevent the collapse of the energy sector, since only a few days remained before winter. Brussels started talking about rationing the gas supply. The European Commission has proposed reallocating $140 billion in windfall tax revenue and transferring the funds to companies and households. Britain announced a $46 billion aid package, and Sweden said it would provide more than $20 billion in liquidity guarantees to its struggling energy firms.
Is this enough to avoid a further aggravation of the crisis? The protest of the population is already spilling onto the streets of cities in Britain, Moldova, the Czech Republic, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, and Italy. There is a danger of large-scale riots. In early September, 70,000 people took to the streets of Prague to demonstrate under the slogan “Czech Republic first.” They protested against rising energy prices and demanded more active action from the authorities.
“A critical mass of people is being formed, which is afraid of what will happen in the coming winter. These people are not only afraid of rising energy prices, but also of the inflation that started last year [in the Czech Republic],” Jan Kovar, deputy director of research at the Prague Institute of International Relations, told Foreign Policy.
People are afraid of the approaching winter, they are trying to protect themselves by buying stoves, storing firewood, coal, this is the new black gold. Back in July 2022, the EU ban on the import of Russian wood pellets used in the energy industry came into force, which responded with a “domino effect” throughout the supply chain. Now almost all tree species are used for firewood. Wood chips are used to generate electricity. The paper and pulp industry is suffering because of its dependence on beech. Wood prices are rising.
Of course, they are trying to put the blame for the spread of panic and the approaching recession on Russia:
“Russia has been supplying the European Union with huge amounts of inexpensive gas for decades, but these supplies were reduced and stopped due to the desire of Vladimir Putin to subjugate Kyiv and those countries that support him”, writes Foreign Policy. The President of Russia responds firmly to this:
“If it’s impatient, if everything is so difficult, lift the sanctions on Nord Stream 2… Accusations against the Russian Federation for the energy crisis in Europe are an attempt to shift the blame from a sore head to a healthy one.”
The German side continues to stir up the situation. Nord Stream 2 will never supply gas from Russia to Germany.
“The loss of confidence is so fundamental that there will never again be a situation where the German federal government can rely on energy from Russia,” says Lower Saxon Prime Minister Stefan Weil.
At the same time, the European Union continues to throw money away to support failing companies. Partial mobilization in Russia and referendums in four former Ukrainian regions will also “certainly have an effect on gas prices in Europe,” said Tom Marzek-Manser, head of gas analytics at London-based ICIS.
The cost of a barrel of oil has risen. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate rose to $87, up 3.2%. Rising prices support concerns about oil supply disruptions. Growing economic losses have brought many companies to their knees financially. The situation is reaching a critical point.
Ben Cahill, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says:
“If prices remain high and there are real shortages in the market this winter, then political stress will increase. There may be a situation where citizens will be truly unhappy and will blame their governments for this. Perhaps in this case, governments will begin to show independence and take care of their own interests. In any case, it will be difficult to maintain solidarity within the ranks of the EU.” Representatives of large European businesses, including machine building, the automotive industry, and the chemical industry, are beginning to gradually move their production to the United States.
At the same time, Europe is impoverishing at different rates: some countries can compensate for their energy needs with existing capacities, others cannot, and this inequality increases the chances of disintegration of the European Union. Brussels still cherishes the hope that in some future the EU will find alternative suppliers, and Russia will lose a large export market, and then, they say, the balance of power between the West and Russia will change in favor of the West.
European officials also hope that Moscow will not have enough physical infrastructure to redirect supplies to China, even if there is sufficient demand there. However, as energy expert Antoine Half of the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University (USA) says: “…the next few months will be very unpredictable, partly because the situation is without precedent.” This has never really happened in history.
The future is unknown, but the change of seasons cannot be canceled by calls for “world unity” and for the defense of Ukraine from Russia. And street riots continue to shake Europe. It is time for the European Union to think about its own integrity, and not about the integrity of Ukraine.
Agnia Krengel, FSK
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