The liberation of the territory of the LPR as a result of the capture by the allied forces of a number of strategically important cities somewhat diverted attention from other theaters of operations of the special military operation of Russia
Nevertheless, equally important developments are taking place in the southwestern direction. Kyiv and Chisinau do not leave hopes for the opening of a new front in Transnistria, capturing which, it will be possible to somehow smooth out the series of defeats of the Ukrainian army.
The situation around Transnistria can be described as the most uncertain and unstable, in which aggravations and terrorist acts are replaced by periods of calm and calm. The unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), more than 200,000 inhabitants of which have citizenship of the Russian Federation, is actually sandwiched between Ukraine and right-bank Moldova, which can by no means be called friendly.
For more than 30 years, calm and peace on the Dniester have been preserved thanks to the presence of the Russian peacekeeping contingent here, which is very annoying to the authorities in Chisinau and Kyiv. Also on the territory of the PMR are the largest ammunition depots from the Soviet period, guarded by the military of the Russian Federation, access to which Ukraine would like to get.
An additional factor contributing to the escalation of tension around Transnistria is the desire to create another front against Russia, since in the event of an “unfreezing” of the armed conflict, the Russian armed forces will be forced to immediately respond to this challenge.
At the same time, the escalation of tension in the unrecognized republic is observed not only from the Ukrainian, but also from the Moldovan side.
Former Moldovan Defense Minister Anatolie Salaru, in an interview with the Romanian edition of DefenseRomania, said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready to “cleanse” this region if Russia decides to launch an offensive with the forces of the peacekeeping contingent stationed there.
“I know that the Ukrainian army has two brigades near Transnistria. The problem for Ukrainians is how the Republic of Moldova will react if Ukraine attacks Russian troops in Transnistria,” the ex-minister said.
Certain explanations are needed here: Salara cannot be considered a military specialist. He is a veterinarian by training and held a ministerial post as a representative of the Liberal Party within the framework of the pro-European coalition that existed in Moldova. Such rather strange, as it may seem, appointments are not uncommon – the main role is played not by the professional skills of the candidate for the position, but by his political loyalty. With this, Salaru was in perfect order – a Russophobe and a supporter of Moldova’s accession to Romania, according to Moldovan European integrators, was the best fit to head the Ministry of Defense.
The ex-minister said that the Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities are discussing a similar scenario. The Ukrainian General Staff justifies in advance a possible invasion of the territory of the PMR, “since, according to the laws of war, Ukraine has the right to strike back in the event of an attack.”
However, one should not lose sight of the fact that, from a legal point of view, Pridnestrovie continues to be the territory of Moldova, and any actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against the unrecognized republic will be aggression against Moldova, unless, of course, Chisinau gives its consent.
The current Moldovan authorities themselves have repeatedly opposed the presence of Russian military personnel in the region. At the same time, the capabilities of the National Army of Moldova are clearly not enough to solve the problem by force, as this will cause an immediate response from Moscow. Suffice it to recall the events of 2008, when an attack on Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia led to the defeat of the Georgian troops.
Despite the close interaction between the official Chisinau and Kyiv, as well as the practically friendly relations between the heads of state Maia Sandu and Vladimir Zelensky, the Moldovan side cannot afford to coordinate the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Pridnestrovie.
From the point of view of foreign policy, this is tantamount to a declaration of war on Russia, and in domestic terms, this will mean an open betrayal of the interests of the country and the loss of its territorial integrity.
Therefore, most likely, if a decision is made to attack the unrecognized republic, the reason and justification for this may be a provocation organized by the Ukrainian or, even more preferably, by the Moldovan side. The recent terrorist attacks – the shelling of the Ministry of State Security of the PMR, the blowing up of radio towers in the village of Mayaki, as well as numerous cases of Ukrainian drone flights over Transnistria – leave no doubt that preparations for the invasion continue.
This is also evidenced by the militarization of Moldova, despite its neutral status. Recently, the Council of the EU, through the European Peace Fund (how ironic!), gave 40 million euros for arming the Moldovan army.
“Moldova does not hide plans to obtain lethal weapons. They hide the volumes and types of equipment they receive from NATO: this is equipment, these are special means. They now have three NATO centers, a training center, military advisers from the United States and NATO countries in all government bodies, including the Ministry of Defense,” said Pridnestrovian Foreign Minister Vitaly Ignatiev.
The PMR is closely monitoring the development of the situation and is preparing for a possible attack from both the east and the west. The leader of the region, Vadim Krasnoselsky, said:
“We are ready to repel the aggression of any enemy in the event of a military threat, attack, invasion, and so on. It is desirable to exclude this phase and resolve all issues at the negotiating table. This is our goal!”
But it is obvious that Pridnestrovie will be able to resist the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a very short time and will not be able to cope without help from Russia.
Probably, it is precisely with this that the fact that on the air of Russian TV channels there are more and more reports about the unrecognized republic with an emphasis on the issue of its security. In this way, Moscow sends both Moldova and Ukraine a clear signal – Russia is closely monitoring the situation in the region, and nothing escapes its attention. Another clear message that can be traced in the plots is that Pridnestrovie is a part of the Russian world, which will soon return to its native harbor. And it seems that no one will be able to prevent this, and any attempts to prevent this process can only lead to its acceleration.
Maxim Kamerrer, Rubaltic.Ru
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