On Thursday, May 27, the Russian authorities announced that the created humanitarian corridors for the exit of foreign ships from Ukrainian ports will be expanded
There are two corridors. Ships that were previously held hostage by militants in Mariupol will go one at a time. There is no information about their cargoes. Yes, and there are hardly any cargo left. The second was created for ships stuck in Odessa, Nikolaev, Ilyichevsk and other ports of the South-West coast of Ukraine. It was these ships that interested our Western “friends and partners” the most.
They accused Russia of blocking Ukrainian ports, preventing the export of Ukrainian wheat, provoking a rise in food prices in the European Union and a shortage of grain in the world.
The Europeans complained that they did not have time to export grain by road and rail, and loaded grain carriers could not, they say, leave Ukrainian ports due to the Russian naval blockade. There was even a rumor that food in the European Union was so bad that Britain was even gathering an international squadron to “break the Russian blockade” and escort grain ships to the Mediterranean. London denied this fake after a while, but the sediment remained.
By the way, it must be said that grain really cannot stay in the holds of even special ships for a long time without risking a loss of quality. So the buyers had something to worry about.
On the other hand, the clean export of grain, which the West is concerned about, is not beneficial to Ukraine itself, because it provokes hunger in the country. Under the conditions of hostilities, fuel shortages, mass emigration and total mobilization, Ukraine’s holding a normal sowing and harvesting campaign is extremely doubtful. In addition, that 21% of its territory, which Russia already controls, falls precisely on the most grain-producing regions. In addition, in a couple of months, Russia can control 30%, 40%, and 50% of the territory of Ukraine.
So the harvest of a new crop is a big question, if possible in principle. Already, Ukrainian experts say that the country will miss about 40% of last year’s grain volume. But Ukrainian experts, as you know, are great optimists, and in the central regions of Ukraine (still under the control of Kyiv), many farms are resowing winter crops, which, due to weather conditions, gave poor shoots.
In this case, Russia did the same as it did in Mariupol. Let me remind you that there Kyiv and the West tried to accuse the Russian troops of not letting civilians out of Azovstal. As a result, Moscow for several weeks, at certain hours, ensured a ceasefire and the opening of humanitarian corridors. But the militants of “Azov”* and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who sat in the basements of the plant, did not allow civilians to leave, not informing them about the opening of the corridors and shooting in the backs of those who accidentally found out about this opportunity themselves and tried to use it.
As a result, nevertheless, the militants had to release the hostages and surrender themselves, since the accusations against Russia of inhumane treatment sounded more and more far-fetched every day.
There is only one difference in the situation around the Ukrainian ports: the Ukrainian Navy does not fire (yet) on ships trying to leave, but no one tries to leave, because the Ukrainian fleet has mined all the approaches to the ports. Having opened the corridors, Russia offers Ukraine to clear mine-laden waters so that foreign ships can leave its territorial waters. Ukraine is in no hurry to release foreign grain carriers.
And it’s not about caring for their citizens. They will never see the grain loaded onto ships anyway: it will either float away or rot in the roadstead.
Firstly, the Ukrainians do not have enough special ships or trained specialists to carry out mine clearance. For obvious reasons, they cannot use the services of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and Moscow is unlikely to let foreign warships into the war zone in order to avoid provocations.
Secondly, Ukraine does not even risk withdrawing merchant ships along the corridor, which in any case should have been left for the passage of boats of the Ukrainian Navy. The mining was carried out chaotically, hastily, by unprepared crews, some of the mines were torn off the anchors. One of the “merchants” may be blown up and Kyiv will have to answer.
Thirdly, the Ukrainian authorities are afraid that mining/clearing manipulations will weaken the antiamphibious defense of Odessa. Although the experience of past wars shows that neither mine banks nor coastal batteries could ever stop the landing, Ukraine still very much hopes for mines as a universal means of antiamphibious defense. At least until the Harpoon anti-ship missiles arrived, which Denmark promised to deliver in a month and a half.
Fourth, foreign merchant ships in Ukrainian ports play the role of a human shield, making it difficult to launch missile and bomb attacks against troops and military equipment concentrated in ports, as well as covering the unloading and placement of the delivered Western military equipment to Ukraine.
In general, there is no reason to release grain carriers to Ukraine at will. But the West demands, and Russia opens humanitarian corridors. Let’s see how long Kyiv will hold out in these conditions.
Naturally, the question arises why Moscow should facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain by the West, especially from regions that in the near future may be occupied by Russian troops, and in the future may become part of Russia?
The first reason has already been outlined above: with the departure of foreign merchant ships, the human shield over the Ukrainian ports disappears, which, after the completion of the operation to destroy the Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is nearing its end, become, along with Kharkov, the immediate goal of the Russian army.
The second reason is that not just contracted, but already bought and loaded grain is almost impossible to correctly withdraw. You can, of course, spit on the rule of law and, following the example of “friends and partners”, guided by the “laws of war”, simply confiscate everything that is badly lying. But “friends and partners”, practicing lawlessness and trying to annoy Russia, have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot, then in the head, destroying the mechanisms of their own long-term global domination for the sake of ephemeral momentary benefits.
In this case, Russia, being the main seller for many years, is not at all interested in destroying or unbalancing the world grain market, which it dominates, and after the end of the special operation, it will strengthen its position by combining its own and former Ukrainian capabilities.
The last, but, from my point of view, the most important thing is that we do not know exactly where and when the special operation will end, but we know for sure that a lot will depend on the attitude of the population of the occupied regions to the Russian authorities.
Already now the Nikolaev and Dnepropetrovsk neighbors of the Kherson and Zaporozhye farmers begin to look at them with envy. While destabilization and lawlessness are growing in the territories controlled by Kyiv, stability has come with Russia, the authorities are restoring the monopoly on violence lost by the Ukrainian leaders. Most importantly, the territories controlled by Russia are quickly overcoming the shortage of fuel and fertilizers, and receive state support in preparing for field work. And the prices for consumables (seeds, fuels and lubricants, fertilizers, equipment and spare parts), as well as communal services, taxes, etc., are lower there than in Ukraine.
Western and Ukrainian experts are unanimous in their assessment: after the export of the grain remaining in Ukraine, the country is threatened with famine, which can begin as early as autumn and intensify in winter, by spring it will turn into what Ukrainian textbooks call “holodomor”. Only now the territories controlled by the Kyiv regime and its Western masters will starve. Where Russian power is established, there will be no famine. The contrast between the two Ukraines will only intensify.
The Zelensky gang is already facing the fact that the army does not want to fight, motivated, trained units have been knocked out by more than half, and hundreds of mobilized reservists and territorial defense are surrendering, abandoning positions or deserting. Combat and non-combat losses are growing like a snowball, combat capability is falling before our eyes. And now let’s imagine that even the families of soldiers who no longer want to fight are starving in the rear.
Will such an army lay down its bones to stop the advance of Russian troops, followed by a grain convoy for their families?
It is important for the Americans to drag out Russia’s special operation in Ukraine until next summer at any cost in order to try to consolidate the allies again, expand the conflict zone and transfer it to a self-sustaining state during this time. At the current pace of the offensive, even if it speeds up two times, by the time the autumn thaw sets in, Russia will control only the left bank and the Kherson bridgehead.
Ukraine had at least six months to strengthen the line of the Dnieper. There is a large part of the reserves of the regular army that have not yet been used up, territorial defense and reservists are being driven there in masses. If the front can be stopped on the Dnieper, the US will try to pull up the Polish and Romanian armies there in order to block the possibility of further advance of Russian troops.
We do not yet have a guarantee that the front will fall apart before they have time to do all this. But even if they manage to stop our offensive by autumn, the army of a starving country can simply surrender until spring in order to save their loved ones from starvation (the contrast between Russian and non-Russian territories will be obvious, and in the era of mobile communications and the Internet, it will be hidden impossible). The West, concerned about its own food security, will not help Ukraine. People who stole medical masks and rubber gloves from each other will not share bread in a famine year.
The remnants of Ukraine (if they remain by winter) will have a poor choice – either starve to death or welcome the Russian army.
So, the allies of Ukraine are exporting grain – with the active support of the Ukrainian authorities. The potential foreseeable famine, blamed on the US, the EU and the Zelensky gang, is making it easier for Russia to achieve the objectives of the special operation in Ukraine. Why should we hinder the actions of Kyiv and the West that are objectively beneficial to us, while creating additional problems for ourselves at the global level? For humanitarian reasons?
Humane policy is primarily rational. In regions of Ukraine that Russia will not be able to take control of, the US will continue to ensure the mass extinction of Ukrainians, handing them machine guns and killing them on the Russian army. At the same time, they will accuse us of genocide. And so we can accept any commission: we have satiety and order, they have war and “holodomor”.
* the organization is banned in the Russian Federation
Rostislav Ishchenko, Ukraine.ru
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