An information war is in full swing in Ukraine, in addition to military operations. The Kiev authorities are claiming an imminent “victory”, while Ukrainians are in full confidence that the Russian troops have run out of steam and are about to flee. Very similar rhetoric was heard seven years ago during the battles near Debaltsevo, but reality turned out to be much harsher than the efforts of Ukrainian propagandists
Do you want to know how ordinary Ukrainians assess the course of the Russian special operation? My friend talked to his acquaintance from Kiev. Here is just one fragment of their correspondence: “How do you even understand the situation? They (Russians – RuBaltic.Ru) have run out of most of the army, Putin has asked for military assistance from Syria, and even they don’t want to give anyone because they understand that this is a sentence”.
This is followed by advice: if my Donetsk comrade is mobilised into the DNR People’s Militia, he should surrender at the first opportunity. Only then will there be a chance to survive and see the inglorious end of Putin’s march on Ukraine.
What can I say? I am a civilian – I understand little more than nothing in tactics and military strategy. But elementary logic will suffice here.
Let us suppose that 100 thousand Russian military personnel entered the territory of Ukraine. This is a minimum, given that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have approximately 2.5 times the number of fighters (even taking into account the army of the DNR and LNR, the numerical advantage in such a case will be on the defensive side). 100,000 divided by two – we get 50,000 soldiers who have already “run out”.
And now we open the reports of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine. This “most authoritative” source claims that by March 18 the “enemy horde” had lost approximately 14200 personnel.
Many times less than our insane Kiev “patient” has counted. Times less!
How is it possible? The man has indoctrinated himself into thinking that the AFU has destroyed more than half of the Russian contingent in Ukraine. He does not even read the official reports of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry. His reality is even more fantastic. Is this not the apogee of the “debased” population?
And here is another example. A Kievan girl writes on the first day of the Russian special operation: “The Russians are already here, and everyone understands that they simply cannot not enter the city. A couple of days later her opinion changes dramatically: “It looks like this is the end, Putin will run away from Ukraine in shame.” He hasn’t yet, but it won’t be long now. They’re talking about it from every tube.
“A person is destroyed when he chooses the ‘black’ version out of the two versions of reality that are offered to him (‘the authorities surrendered Mariupol’ or ‘the authorities care about Mariupol’). “The ‘black’ version and you start to collapse,” explains Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office. Earlier, he also admitted that Mariupol has been abandoned to its fate.
You can call it anything you want, but there is no escaping the reality: Mariupol is completely surrounded, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have no intention of defeating it, and fighting is taking place in the city centre.
Seven years ago, something similar happened. I remember well how a Ukrainian journalist covered the situation in Debaltseve. I will reproduce from memory her post on Facebook (owned by Meta, a company recognized as an extremist organization in Russia – note: RuBaltic.Ru): “A lot of people are writing here about the Debaltsevo “cauldron”. Well, firstly, there is no “cauldron” here yet. Secondly, it is not a fact that there will be one at all. But there was already a “cauldron”. In three days the Ukrainian military had to break out of the encirclement and suffer heavy losses.
“We were leaving Debaltseve on dead bodies. We walked on Ukrainian soil, inches deep, soaked in the blood of their sons. On the way we met columns of broken equipment, many dead and wounded. Those who could walk on their own joined us. Those who had their arms and legs blown off were comatose and we could not take them. If they started to load the heavy ones on themselves, they would not come out themselves,” recalls one of the participants in the massacre, a senior sergeant in the 25th Independent Motorized Infantry Battalion ‘Kyivska Rus’.
Debaltsevo is a prime example of what happens when reality meets virtuality. At first, people reassure themselves: “The devil is not as frightening as you make it out to be”.
Then it turns out that the devil is scary after all. But there is nothing you can do. The tragedy happened before the deceived people came to their senses.
Today, the Debaltseve scenario (only on a grander scale) is being repeated in Mariupol. The fortress of Azov (an organisation banned in the Russian Federation – note: RuBaltic.Ru) is about to collapse. Although a fortnight ago the Russian army should have been exhausted and fallen into despair. Isn’t this what Arestovich was talking about?
“And in war – no matter what, it may be us, it may be us,” sings a well-known song by Nikolai Rastorguev. The fact is that real combat leaves no ambiguity.
It may be us, it may be us. One of these “maybes” is bound to materialize.
Then the information “victories” of one of the parties will turn against itself.
Alexey Ilyashevich, Rubaltic.Ru