It is only the eighth month of Biden’s presidency, but the American political class is already beginning to prepare with might and main for the next electoral cycle.
Congressional elections in 2022 are on the nose, and immediately after them a new presidential race begins, the contours of which are still difficult to predict.
There are too many unknown variables here – for example, whether Biden will retire or retire for health reasons. If the second scenario happens, then Biden will be expected to choose a successor. And it is far from the fact that it will turn out to be the ever-laughing Kamala Harris – the most unpopular vice president of the United States over the past 50 years.
In turn, in the Republican camp, everyone is waiting for Trump’s decision. He has recently released two videos with sharp criticism of Biden for the Afghan disaster. One of them was shown on cable television and can be said to be Trump’s first election video in the next presidential campaign.
Trump also announced that he will visit Iowa, the first and most important state in the party primaries, in the coming months. Back in 2016, he lost here, losing a few percent to Ted Cruz. In 2020, as president, Trump received 97% of the Republican vote in the Iowa caucuses.
According to the latest polls, Trump continues to be the clear leader in future primaries. 60-70% of Republican supporters are ready to vote for him outright. If Trump does not participate in the elections, the first place is immediately taken by the Governor of Florida Ron DiSantis with 30-40%.
Against the backdrop of the Afghan fiasco, soaring inflation and the migration crisis, Biden’s ratings plummeted. Under 20% of Americans would like to change their vote and not choose Biden. And if Trump’s fight with Biden was repeated, the incumbent would be behind.
Biden’s unpopularity, coupled with his declining cognitive state, will increasingly turn him into a lame duck president. This could formally gain a foothold next year if Democrats lose their majority in Congress. In this case, the focus of attention will quickly shift towards the presidential race, while America lives out the remaining years of the era of “developed Biden supporting.”
Malek Dudakov