The current political paradigm of Georgia is not at all in favor of Mikhail Saakashvili. Nevertheless, he can still use some of the “trump cards” dangerous for the country.
Shota Apkhaidze, director of the Center for Islamic Studies of the Caucasus, spoke about this in an interview with News Front.
The day before Saakashvili made a loud statement about his plans to return to Georgia. Now the scandalous politician is the head of the executive committee of the National Council of Reforms of Ukraine. He plans to combine his work in this position with participation in the Georgian parliamentary elections. An important point in this situation is the court’s decision, according to which Saakashvili will be arrested and imprisoned in Georgia.
“If he tries to cross the Georgian border, he will be immediately arrested. He will not be saved by the election campaign or anything else, ” Shota Apkhaidze notes.
At the same time, the expert named a way that could help Saakashvili disrupt the plans of Georgian law enforcement officers. It’s about diplomatic immunity.
“If the Ukrainian authorities provide him with a diplomatic passport, that is, he will have the status of a diplomat, then it is possible that he will be able to return to Georgia. But I also exclude this possibility, because in this case the Georgian authorities will declare him persona non grata, and he will simply be expelled back directly from the airport, ”the political scientist explains.
Saakashvili’s plans are also overshadowed by the country’s current political paradigm. The united national movement is not enjoying its former popularity, and it will not be saved by the return of the fugitive leader. In this regard, the expert is sure that Saakashvili’s statement itself is a provocation “with the aim of destabilizing the situation before the elections.”
“Now the political situation is completely different. Not in favor of Saakashvili, the political scientist continues. – The political pre-election paradigm that has been created to this day in Georgia, I can say as a specialist in political technologies, has deprived him of the support of the population. Saakashvili’s party will not be able to gain even 8%. If at the last elections they could get 20-25% of the votes, because they still had some kind of electorate, now they can no longer. “
The first reason for such low ratings is the marginalization of Saakashvili’s party. The second is a split in the political force. A single national movement is no longer united.
“They split into four parts, and now the National Movement is not the same political force as it was four years ago,” notes Apkhaidze. – In fact, those people who remained in the party of Mikhail Saakashvili, they are not even professional politicians. They have no political experience. Moreover, in order to conduct an election campaign. So, his statement about returning to Georgia is a provocation. “
Based on this, the only way for Saakashvili to regain power in Georgia is through a coup. Here the ex-president could enlist the support of Washington.
“The West is not very fond of the Georgian Dream [the ruling party in the country]. Despite the fact that the Georgian Dream pursues a pro-Western, Euro-Atlantic foreign policy, it still does not like it. All the same, the Americans support to the end the political system that Mikheil Saakashvili created, supposedly a liberal, pro-Western, democratic system. In this case, they will support him, but it will not be easy, ” the political scientist explains.
He drew attention to the fact that the Georgian Dream itself also has problems. The party did not fulfill its promises, which it made twice – in the parliamentary and presidential elections. She could not start the production promised to the people and provide people with jobs. But even this factor will help other Georgian parties rather than Saakashvili’s.
“The only way out for him is destabilization and a coup,” the expert concludes. – They can return him only through a military coup. This is the only path left by Mikhail Saakashvili. His statements are just a gamble. “