The former head of the collective farm coped well with the role of head of state, providing Belarus with stability, albeit at the expense of cheap Russian oil.
This is stated in the material of the Bloomberg agency dedicated to the presidential elections in Belarus.
Let us remind you that the elections are scheduled for August 9, however, early voting began yesterday. Until August 8, it is allowed to vote for those who cannot do so on Sunday. According to the Central Election Commission, the turnout on the first day of voting was 4.98%.
“Yes, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko will win another resounding victory after Sunday’s vote. After all, the country has not held elections that Western observers have recognized as free and fair since 1995, ”Bloomberg writes.
At the same time, as noted in the agency, the “squeaky” economy with a budget of $ 63 billion, problems with the coronavirus, the flourishing of pro-Western opposition and the controversial demarche with the detention of Russian citizens could make Lukashenko’s sixth presidential term the most difficult.
More than ten years ago, the head of the US State Department, Condoleezza Rice, proclaimed Lukashenka “the last dictator of Europe.” For a quarter of a century now he has been demonstrating his “virtuoso game”, taking advantage of the confrontation between Russia and the West.
“The former head of the collective farm possessed enviable stability and even contributed to relative prosperity, largely thanks to cheap Russian oil,” the media explain. – Part of the problem is old. The Belarusian economy, which is dominated by state-owned enterprises with significant support, is in a state of stagnation. “
Despite this, there is no doubt that Lukashenka will win, unless the elections are disrupted. However, what is happening in Belarus now may have far-reaching consequences. In one scenario, the pro-Western opposition could launch protests in the country. If they are not suppressed and dragged on “in the spirit of Armenia”, then they can provoke a split in the ruling elite and the overthrow of the current government.
“This is an attractive scenario,” Bloomberg writes. “It is also a result that is unlikely to be supported by neighboring Russia.”
In this regard, attention is drawn to the fact that there is allegedly nothing particularly anti-Russian in the pro-Western Belarusian opposition, although in reality all opposition candidates oppose further rapprochement with the Russian Federation. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who is especially highlighted by Bloomberg, generally opposed the Union State.
“Considering Minsk’s track record of repression and the campaign with a murky episode about Russian mercenaries, the crackdown on demonstrations after the elections will not be shocking,” the article says. “But it’s hard to see how the energy of Tikhanovskaya’s rallies will be easily contained after inevitable defeat.”
Against this background, Bloomberg warns that Lukashenka should not resist the opposition’s attempts to carry out a coup, because this will bring him “high costs” in the form of sanctions pressure and “banishment into the diplomatic wilderness,” which the West will take care of.