The National Bureau of Economic Research confirmed the start date for the ongoing recession. In February, the longest business cycle in US history ended: a growth period of 128 months.
The US economy began to slow back last year, when the effect of the reforms of the Donald Trump administration began to wane. Trump’s tax and regulatory reforms gave the United States three years of rapid growth in GDP and population income. Only a global pandemic and quarantine measures ended them.
In January, the US unemployment was at its lowest level in 60 years: 3.5%. Now it exceeds 13%. In the second quarter, the Federal Reserve expects GDP to fall by 35-50%, this is the worst collapse of the economy in more than 100 years.
But the White House hopes that the collapse will be followed by rapid recovery growth, which will fall precisely in the third and fourth quarters: the period of voting in the presidential election.
The first signs of a recovery in the US economy are already observed: for example, in May, America added 2.5 million new jobs. The peak of the crisis in the labor market was probably in April, and the situation will only begin to improve in the coming months.
To speed up the recovery process, the Trump administration is considering additional plans to stimulate the economy: in particular, we can talk about reducing contributions to the content of social support programs for the population.