Theresa May’s authority has been draining away for weeks, but the U.K. prime minister only officially becomes a lame duck on Friday.
After first saying she would resign if she got her Brexit deal through parliament; then promising to announce her resignation at some future date; and finally setting a date for when she would actually, formally resign, the U.K. prime minister will finally step down as Conservative Party leader on June 7.
Here’s what happens next:
May steps down
Don’t expect any pomp and ceremony. May will remain prime minister and acting leader until her successor is chosen, meaning she will still have to face MPs at Prime Minister’s Questions time each Wednesday, and represent the U.K. on the world stage. That will very likely mean heading to the European Council in Brussels and the G20 summit in Osaka later this month.
The contest
May’s departure formally triggers a contest that in truth is already underway in earnest. By Monday there were 13 candidates in the running — much higher than in previous races — including serving Cabinet ministers and backbenchers who have not held ministerial office for years. By Tuesday evening two had already dropped out.
Starting gun
MPs who want to stand in the race must submit their nomination papers to the 1922 committee, the backbench grouping of Tory MPs that is running the race, between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m. on Monday, June 10. Each candidate must have the backing of eight MPs to stand — a proposer, a seconder and six other MPs.
This is a change from previous contests where MPs needed only a proposer and seconder, making it easier for candidates to get up and running. The large field in this race prompted the 1922 committee to announce the rule change to pare back the field more quickly. It was backed by the Conservative Party board on Tuesday.
Whittling the field down
MPs will hold a sequence of secret ballots over the following two weeks to cut the number of contenders down to a shortlist of two. The first ballot — to be held on Thursday, June 13 between 10 a.m. and noon local time — will require candidates to win 5 percent of votes (17 MPs), while the second ballot will require 10 percent of votes (33 MPs). This is another change to the rules to speed up the process. Last time a leadership election was fought, in 2016, only the lowest placed candidate was eliminated.
This phase will start on June 13 with three more ballots scheduled on June 18, 19 and 20. The returning officers for the parliamentary stage of the leadership election are 1922 executive committee members Cheryl Gillan and Charles Walker.
Hustings
The BBC announced it would hold two televised debates with the candidates. All of the candidates in the race by mid-June will be invited to a hustings event on BBC One, and the final two will go head-to-head in a “Question Time Special.” ITV and Sky News are also holding talks with candidates about televised hustings.
There will also be membership hustings, with the first planned on June 22. The 2005 race involved 11 regional hustings meetings for Tory members.
Head-to-head
The final two candidates selected by MPs are then put to around 124,000 Tory Party members (the last publicly available figure from 2018) on a “one member, one vote” basis. This stage of the process will be completed in the week beginning July 22.
In 2005, the last time the leadership was put to the members, it was conducted through a postal ballot.
New leader
Once a new leader has been selected by the Tory membership, Queen Elizabeth II will ask them to form a new administration. If they accept, they will “kiss hands” (the constitutional terminology for formal appointment to ministerial office) upon their appointment as prime minister and first lord of the treasury. There is no requirement for confirmation by parliament, but the new prime minister will need to quickly shore up the alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party, which provides the Conservatives with a majority.
If the winner looks like they do not have the support of MPs (some Tories have said they would leave the party if a hard Brexiteer were elected, for example) then opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn is very likely to call a no-confidence vote. That could bring down the new government and precipitate a general election.