By Zamir Ahmed Awan
Recent tension between the US and Iran is alarming for the whole region, especially for Pakistan. US-Iran relations were soared since 1979’s revolution. But in recent days, the tension has climaxed to a dangerous situation. There are fears of direct confrontation or indirect confrontation between the US and Iran.
It might have an adverse impact on the whole region and neighboring countries. Especially Pakistan may suffer much more. Pakistan is suffering due to the Afghan situation for the last 4 decades. Any new challenges due to the Iran situation may harm Pakistan much more.
The immediate impact may be the influx of refugees. A similar situation arose, in 1979, at the time of revolution in Iran, a huge number of Iranian refugees entered Pakistan. Pakistan has not forgotten the bitter experience of hosting Afghan refugees, which number almost 5 million at peak time. The international community extends assistance in the beginning but gradually reduces its role. Pakistan cannot afford any more burden. Pakistan’s ailing economy cannot support any additional burden at all.
It should be understood that Iran is Shiaa majority country, while in Pakistan, Shiaa has a considerable existence. By population, may only 25% are Shiaas, but they are well educated, well placed in the society, especially in the key positions in the Government. Economically, they are rich and very well connected with each other. Over-all weightage, they might be almost 50%. Any awkward situation in Iran may also have direct social unrest in Pakistan too.
Although Pakistan enjoys very close relations with the Arab World, Iran, being next door neighbor, have even much more important for Pakistan. It is worth mentioning that the US and Iran do not have diplomatic relations. While Pakistan protects Iran’s interests in the US and Switzerland Protects US interests in Iran. Pakistan Embassy in Washington DC and the Swiss Embassy in Tehran are playing very important roles.
The US may exert more pressure on Pakistan, against Iran, Similarly, the Arab World may also push Pakistan against Iran. But, Pakistan cannot be a party with either of them. Pakistan needs to keep its neutral role or bridge between them. It will be rather a hard task. However, Pakistan cannot afford enmity with either of them.
On the other hand, India a traditional rival of Pakistan may play a dirty role against Pakistan too. In fact, India has signed the “Major Defense Partner” (MDP) agreement with the US. In return, India has been benefitted by US economic Assistance, Transfer of technology, Hi-tech, Weapons, political support, diplomatic support, etc. India has become the second largest beneficiary of US assistance after Israel. India has also developed very close preferential relations with Israel. Israel-Iran is the worst enemy.
US has allowed India to import Iranian Oil, an exception to sanctions imposed by the US itself. India was planned to penetrate deep into Iran with the purposely. India is building Chahbahar
Seaport for Iran and engaged in building the railways & Roads network in the length and breadth of Iran.
India may be assigned an important task due to its presence in almost all parts of Iran, they are “Ground Intelligence”. Indian intelligence has already present everywhere inside Iran and well aware of everything inside Iran.
Any military action might need ground intelligence. For which, India has already well placed. It will give India an additional edge and India may also harm Pakistan.
Over-all any confrontation in the oil-rich region may harm the global economy or might change the whole scenario of geopolitics. As Russia and China, may not welcome US influence in this region. But Pakistan’s geopolitical location is the pivot and may face more severe challenges. While Pakistan was struggling its survival after 4 decades of Afghan mesh, may not be ready to face such big challenges foreseen from US-Iran tension.
The international community may act and may act swiftly before it is too late. Save the precious lives of humans, avert the bloodshed and pro-actively promote global peace, which is need of time.