The European People’s Party (EPP), the Continent’s largest political group, is projected to win just 174 seats out of 705 in the new European Parliament — its lowest forecast total since June 2018, according to POLITICO’s latest projection.
The EPP polled at 181 seats in January, and holds 217 seats out of 751 in the current Parliament.
The second-ranked Party of European Socialists has been on a downward trend for the past year and is on course to win 135 seats.
POLITICO provides a daily updated seat projection for the European Parliament election, based on an average of all published opinion polls in EU27 countries, including polling data collected by the European Parliament.
Euroskeptic parties remain divided into several groups. While the new Parliament may be home to around 250 Euroskeptic MEPs, no single group dominated by Euroskeptics is likely to win more than 60 seats.
The Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF) group, which includes Italy’s League and France’s National Rally, is on track to win 60 seats.
The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) is set to win 68 seats, but would be the clear third force if the 20 MEPs set to be elected from Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche party joined the group.
Claims of a green wave in Europe are not reflected in POLITICO’s seat projection. While Greens are polling in second place in Europe’s largest country, Germany, the are set to win only 47 seats, which would leave them as the seventh-largest group in the next Parliament.