BMG’s latest EU Referendum tracker polls continue to show Remain slightly ahead of Leave, though as for most EU Referendum polls, readers should be aware that these figures do not adjust for turnout.
Unlike previous months, BMG conducted three polls in September to track EU Referendum voting intentions. One at the beginning of the month, a second on the eve of Labour Party Conference, and a third just ahead of the Conservative Party Conference.
In each poll, voters were asked: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”. This is identical to the question that featured on the 2016 EU Referendum ballot paper and BMG has continued to track this question ever since.
All three polls show a consistent picture, with Remain marginally ahead of Leave. This reflects a similar pattern that we have seen since the turn of the year. However, while we have yet to see Leave record a lead over Remain in 2016, it should be noted that these findings are all within the margin of error.
Our most recent poll conducted between 28th and 29th September puts Remain on 47%, Leave on 43%, with 10% selecting don’t know or prefer not to say. After factoring in our squeeze question (that asks which way voters are leaning) the headline figure is 52% Remain and 48% Leave, after removing don’t knows and refusals.