By Peter Lvov
Over the last couple of days, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin conducted a series of visits back-to-back, visiting Syria, Egypt and Turkey in less than 48 hours. In spite of the brief nature of these visits, Russia’s leader managed to hold extensive discussions with the heads of the above mentioned states, while Egypt and Turkey saw a round of full-scale negotiations with representatives of business elites of the both parties negotiating, assisted by Foreign Ministries and Ministers of Defense. This fact became apparent when it was announced that the composition of the Russian delegation, which included Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu, several economic ministers, heads of major state corporations, including Rostec, Rosatom and Gazprom.
In Syria, Putin has not just congratulated Russia’s military with the successful fulfillment of the task of destroying ISIS, confirming the intention of the Russian Federation to significantly reduce its military presence in the Syrian Arab Republic, but had a thorough discussion with Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad about the prospects of political settlement in Syria. Indeed, the conflict in Syria doesn’t automatically end and it is necessary to organize an inter-Syrian dialogue in Damascus, while inviting the representatives of the united opposition. However, the task at hand is anything but simple, given the irreconcilable spirit of the opposition regarding the political fate of Bashar al-Assad and its preasumption that “Assad must go.” But here there is a legitimate question – why so? After all, it was the army of the president Syria that, with the support of external allies such as Russia and Iran, that succeeded in putting an end to ISIS and preserving the sovereignty of the country, despite the attempts made by a handful of regional forces to divide it into enclaves and quasi-states. That is why Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad agreed to carry on their efforts to bring all parties together at a congress on inter-Syrian reconciliation in Sochi in February of 2018, together with with Ankara and Tehran. They have also discussed issues related to the restoration of the destroyed infrastructure and the economy of Syria.
Putin’s trip to Cairo had clearly predefined priorities – the development of trade and economic relations, tourism, military cooperation. But the parties had to discuss the Palestinian problem in the light of the recent decision of US President Donald Trump to transfer the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognizing this city as the capital of Israel.
The economic situation in Egypt is fairly complicated these days, since it is being aggravated by internal problems associated with the operations run by a handful of terrorist organizations across the Sinai and the Suez Canal zone. The situation is being aggravated even further by the continious grown of the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, the radical organization that is supported by the Wahhabi Qatar. It is extremely important for Egypt to resume the tourist flow in order to sustain the economy, which, as of now, is in a state of perpetual coma. This puts Moscow in a position to obtain what it wants from Cairo, but it is difficult to say whether Egypt will deal with a number of issues, including the possibility to station Russia’s war ships in the Egyptian ports like, for example, in the port of Mersa Matruh that is no more than 70 miles away from the border with Libya. Moscow may also be inclined to create an air force base in Egypt, the desire that has been repeatedly mentioned by representatives of both states, without any more details being provided. In addition, it is extremely important for the Russian Federation to use Egypt as a launching pad for its return to Libya, which is going to be impossible without providing assistance to the Libyan Field Marshal Khalifa Belqasim Haftar which may allow him to build crucial infrastructure facilities, etc.
And the resumption of the tourist flow to Egypt from Russia is virtually impossible without the resumption of air services between the two states, including charter flights to Sharm El Sheikh and Hurghada, the tourist flow that used to bring billions of dollars to the Egyptian treasury, accompanied by loans and infrastructure projects, construction of nuclear power plants and assembly plants, that Moscow can bring together with its renewed friendship. As for Moscow, a full-fledged and versatile military base, as close as possible to the future theater of military operations in Libya would be a prized possession to go after. Actually, the consequences of these talks can will allow to judge at what stages the preparations for future battles in Libya are. It must be reminded that a series of destabilizing steps followed by an intervention carried out by the US, NATO and Qatar back in 2011 resulted in the destruction of Libya that was finalized with the brutal murder of the rightful leader of the country – Muammar Gaddafi. Back then Russia lost at least 25 billion dollars overnight in
lost profits, as a large number of deals with Gazprom, Russian Railways, Rosoboronexport remained unfulfilled.
It is too early to talk about what kind of an agreement could be reached between Russian and Egypt on all of these issues. Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was prepared to resume air traffic with Egypt, but then Russia’s Transport Minister specified that “this would primarily depend on the Egyptian side.” However, although Egypt is primarily interested in the Russian tourist flow, the problem, in general, remained at the same level. Those who are making decisions are perfectly aware of who and why made a Russian airplane explode over the Sinai back in 2015, as this terrorist attack was staged by local Islamist radicals that enjoyed Qatar’s support.
Egypt must pass navigate a tricky current of conflicting interests, by supporting Moscow’s interest in bringing stability to Libya, which must allow it resume the tourist flow from Russia, but at the same time avoiding any possibility to step on a toe of Egypt’s most important ally – Saudi Arabia, which finances the regime of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, allowing him to stay afloat and counter the threat of the Muslim Brotherhood rise that is associated with Qatar. And there’s little doubt that Riyadh wouldn’t be happy with Russia’s arrival in yet another part of the Middle East. But Saudi Arabia may as well look at this situation in the different light, as Qatar has been enjoying a lot of influence in Libya ever since 2011, and we must not forget that “everything that is bad for Qatar is good for Saudi Arabia.” As for Moscow’s relations with Doha, they don’t seem to get any better in the forseable future, which can be manifested by a strange deal with the shares of Rosneft, which first were handed over to Qatar almost free of charge, and then transferred to the Chinese. One can also remember the beginning of the blockade of Qatar by the Persian Gulf monarchies, when Turkey stood up for it, but Russia would distance itself from the situation, despite number of meetings on this issues that were conducted at the highest levels.
If Saudi Arabia gets guarantees that Moscow in the Libyan campaign will not act against the interests of the Kingdom, but at the same time it will agree to advance some of its interests, the stalemate situation can be resolved. But the cooperation can only go that far, since Riyadh has learned from the Syrian experience, where Moscow destroyed all Saudi hopes by bombing of pro-Saudi radical forces in the north of the country, that Moscow has its own position on certain issues. Back then the Turks were even forced to shoot down a Russian bomber and Riyadh amassed a formidable military force in early 2016 in an attempt to demonstrate that it was ready for the invasion of Syria, but then situation normalized.
So far the results of Putin’s trip to Egypt are yet to become clear. The Egyptians obviously took a pause for a chance of holding discussions with their partners, and therefore there is no final decision on the key issue from the Russian side on the renewal of the tourist flow. There are promises, but there is no decision yet. Apparently, everything will become clear after the New Year.
Another topic of Putin’s talks in Egypt could be the issue of unhindered passage of Russian transport ships through the Suez Canal to supply the future Russian military base in Sudan. According to several reports, Russia’s military experts have already conducted the evaluation of the Sudanese ground realities and come to a conclusion that such a base can be built near Port Sudan – the most important port structure of the country. The parameters of the base are not yet known, but it obviously should be able to accommodate military aircraft. The problem is that the distances from Port Sudan to possible conflict areas – in Libya and Sudan itself – are significant: 800 miles to the border with South Sudan and more than 1,200 miles to Libya which is beyond the operational area of the aircraft that was used in Syria . So one can only deploy Russia’s long-range aviation at such a base. Saudi Arabia has already given its consent to the construction of the Russian base, so it is clear that it does not threat Saudi interests in the region, which automatically means that same can be said about America’s interests. Moreover, the Saudis have in the immediate vicinity of a whole complex of military airfields to guarantee themselves carefree existence. On the Red Sea, such a base can only threaten Qatar and its tankers, as there are no other Saudi enemies in the region.
As for the political part of the talks, it went well, given that there is no disagreement between Moscow and Cairo over either the Palestinian issue or Syria. The commitment to the resolutions of the UN Security Council on Palestine and Jerusalem was reaffirmed by both parties. For For Abdel Fattah el-Sisi this is especially important, given that local population can take to the streets at any given moment, protesting the steps that Washington and Tel-Aviv have been making, and then these protests can quickly become anti-government. In such a situation Saudi Arabia will be unable to help the Sisi regime out. And for Russia, the Russian president’s visit to Egypt was very successful, confirming Moscow’s desire to stay in the region after concluding its operation in Syria.