The US Congress announced the allocation of 4.6 billion dollars within the defense budget for 2018 to fight with Russia in eastern Europe.
We are talking about conducting exercises, maintaining the readiness of deployed troops in Eastern Europe, supporting the armies of local satellites, carrying out activities related to cybersecurity, information warfare, etc.
Ukraine within the framework of these plans will receive 350 million dollars, Baltic states – 100 million.
It is worth noting that there was a forecasted increase in spending on Eastern Europe, but not as large as it could have been. It is worth recalling that in 2015 the budget for this activity was about 750 million dollars. In 2016, it grew to 3.5 billion. Now, the growth is not so significant, but nevertheless, the trend towards an increase in spending on “counteraction to Russia” is quite likely, and the CIA is likely to increase spending in this direction NSA.
What does this mean in practice?
1. The activity of US and NATO troops in the western direction will not decrease, but, on the contrary, will increase slowly. Motivation will remain the same – “counteraction to Russian aggression.” Moreover, in addition to deploying its contingents, the US will continue to pressure the younger allies and satellites to increase their participation in US programs in Eastern Europe.
2. There will be more drills and various military activities. They will be connected both with the development of the interaction of the US Army with the armies of NATO countries, but also with the solution of tasks to increase the combat capabilities of the armies of buffer states like Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Symmetrical measures taken by the Russian Federation will be presented as “evidence of aggressive intentions” and justification for the subsequent growth of the military budget.
3. The increase in funding will certainly affect the strengthening of information and propaganda activities, so that we can expect increased military propaganda on the topic “bad Russia thought bad things,” “Russia wants to seize Poland, the Baltic region, Moldova” (underscore).
4. The attacks on the information infrastructure of the Russian Federation in the framework of “fighting against Russian hackers” will most likely increase, while it should be understood that other services are engaged in this issue besides the Pentagon. Full cyber attacks on state civil and military intelligence agencies are possible. Most likely to continue the activation and intelligence activities in Eastern Europe and Russia.
5. The NATO propaganda will intensify in Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and accordingly the anti-Russian propaganda aimed at fighting for the buffer states. The ultimate goal is determined by the strategy of “restraining Russia” and is connected with the complete squeezing out of Russian political, economic and military influence in these states. Poroshenko is likely to maintain Washington’s support in the medium term, and pressure on Lukashenko and Dodon will intensify.
Thus, the general escalation rhetoric in diplomatic relations will persist, due to systematic practical and information anti-Russian events along the lines of the Pentagon. Trump could not / did not want to break this vector, so despite some efforts on both sides to reduce tensions, the “hawks” from the both sides will prevail in the medium term, as Russia is unlikely to leave such activity unheeded on its borders, which will result in the strengthening of military contingents in the west, carry out their rearmament, intensify technical and intelligence reconnaissance in Eastern Europe, and conduct active counterpropaganda activities within the framework of the ongoing information warfare, etc.
But there is also a positive side, no matter how hard our Westerners tried to normalize relations with the US at the cost of concessions, they are unlikely to get it now. Accordingly, the logic of the conflict will push the Russian Federation to more active steps, although most likely before the presidential elections the situation will try to be maintained within the existing situational status quo in Eastern Europe.